While violent crimes and homicides increased across the country in 2020, even in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, Palm Beach County strayed from the national trend. Homicides dropped for the third straight year, and the decline is continuing into 2021 as no homicides have been reported in the countyin the first five weeks.
Though experts agree that a one-month sample size is too small to garner any analysis of possible trends, the lack of homicides stands out both on the local level and the wider scope of crime in the U.S.
ThePalm Beach Post began tracking reported local homicides in 2009 through an interactive database, with information provided bylaw-enforcement agencies and the Palm Beach County Medical Examiner's Office. Arecent analysis found that:
- 2021 is the first year to have no homicides for the month of January.
- The countyhas averaged about 6.8 homicides every January; the median is 7.5.
- Prior to 2021, the latest date for a reportedhomicide to occur in a new year in Palm Beach Countywas Jan. 10. That happened both in 2009 and 2018.
- In that time, the fewesthomicides the county hashad duringthe first month of the year was four in 2020.
- The most homicides to occur in January since 2009is 11, which happened both in 2010 and 2019. In 2010, the number was higher thanusual due to atriple-homicideinvolving a mother and her two children in Wellington. In 2019, three people were killed on a single day in two separate, unrelated incidents.
The Post asked each law-enforcement agency in the countyif ithad opened any homicide investigations this year. While nonereported any as of the first week of February, most agenciesgreeted the request with hopes of not jinxing the five-week pattern.
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Lantana police haveaveraged fewerthan onehomicide a year for the past 11 years, according to records. Like the other departments across the county,Chief Sean Scheller said hishas not had any cases this year.
"Let's keep it that way," Scheller saidin a message to The Post.
Christopher Herrmann, an assistant professor at John Jay College of Criminal Justice and a former crime-analyst supervisor for the New York Police Department, said that while homicides and crime in general tend to be slower at the beginning of the year, it doesn't mean they stop.
"On Monday, (New York City)had six shootings during the storm, so snow didn't really slow things down up here," he said, referencing the Feb. 1storm that brought 16inches of snow by the end of the day to the city, according to The New York Times.
Herrmann said the majority of homicides either are interpersonal violenceor retribution, many times over drugs or previous crimes.
"It’s not a preventable thing," he said. "It’s not like auto accidents, where you put up a red-light camera or more patrols or post a cop on the corner."
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Herrmann said that while there isn't much to conclude from a month's worth of data about the lack of homicides in Palm Beach County,the more surprising thing is that the county's homicide numbersdidn't go up like much of the rest of the country in 2020.
Last year, Palm Beach County had 90 reported homicides, down from 93 in 2019 and 101in 2018. The smallest amount of reported homicides in the county since The Post began keeping trackwas in 2011, with 83.
While our county's homicides declined in 2020, other cities saw major rises
A studyof 34 cities in 2020,conductedby the nonpartisan Council on Criminal Justice, found that homicide rates were 30%higher than in 2019. Some of thecities included were Atlanta, Minneapolisand St. Petersburg, whose population of 259,000 made it the smallest studied.
While experts agree it is a significant jump — including Herrmann, who said the number typically moves a couple of percentage points each year — the nationalrate of homicides per 100,000 residents remains well below historical highs.
In 2020, the nationalhomicide rate was 11.4 deaths per 100,000 residents, as compared to 1995, when that rate was 19.4, according to the study.
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West Palm Beach Deputy Police Chief RickMorris saidthe city'shomicideshave tapered off in the past few years.
In both 2017 and 2018, the city saw 28 homicides, making up more than a quarter of all homicides in the county both years.That number dropped to 17 in 2019 and 13 in 2020.
Morris said he attributes some of the lower rates tothe city's Real Time Crime Center, which featuresa gunfire detection system, license-plate recognition technology andvideo-surveillance cameras throughout the city that officers use as incidents occur.
He said the technologyallows officers to trackfleeing suspects and reach areas quicker to prevent further violence. It also allows police to get to gunshot victimsfasterfor treatment.
Morris also said that efforts by first responders have kept the homicide numbers down. These include some of his officers who served as medicsin the military, as well asthe staff at St. Mary's Medical Center, one of Palm Beach County's two Level I trauma centers.
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"I've been out to scenes and think there is no way we're going to be able to save (this person),and they do," Morris said.
Morris said that while the homicide numbers arebetter than previous years, there's still work to do. He noted that he and Chief Frank Adderley started in 2019.
That work includes a concentration in areas where drugsarecommon, continued use of the department'sGHOST unit —also known as the Gang-Habitual Offender Suppression Team, andpartneringwith the city and outside investors tobring jobs and businesses into poverty-stricken areas, such as the north end of the city.
"I have to be clear: We have a long way to go," he said.
hwinston@pbpost.com
@hannahwinston
